In college, I actually enjoyed the maths behind economics and statistics. Used properly, statistics and demographics will help the leadership of the Cayman Islands reopen the borders safely. Misused, statistics are not worth the paper on which they are written. Mark Twain had it right when he wrote about using numbers to prove a point.
The 15 Aug. Compass article disclosing the Economics and Statistics Office population research figures is one of those instances and requires both examination and simple conclusions of fact.
Government appears to have arbitrarily used the statistical upper limit (with only 2.5% confidence) of 70,686 people from the ESO study and declared that figure as the ‘new’ population denominator for the premier’s 80% vaccination (of total population) prerequisite for phased reopening of borders.
Government ignored the most-likely estimated figure (the mean, or average) of just under 66,000. This presumption added almost 5,000 people (7.4%) to the population and put the 80% vaccination target further out of reach, just when, despite raffles and prizes, it was starting to slow down.
Oddly enough, the probability that the population is the upper limit of 70,686 is exactly the same as the probability that it is the lower limit of 60,886. The difference is that 60,886 would not support the premier’s higher-number target or narrative.
Using the ESO statistics report, one can summarise:
1. With 95% confidence, the mean population is 65,786, plus or minus...
Read Full Story: https://www.caymancompass.com/2021/08/27/lies-damned-lies-and-statistics/
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