More than 7,000 Arkansans will have died from COVID-19 by the end of the month, according to the predictive model the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health released Tuesday.
The accompanying report said if the college's projection bears out, by early next week the disease will have killed more Arkansans in 17 months than all of the wars the country's fought since 1900.
The report said the state's pandemic entered a sixth phase at the start of July, when the delta variant began fueling sharp increases in the infection curve, hospitalizations and deaths. While earlier permutations targeted people 50 and over, delta has put younger people in the crosshairs.
"The delta variant is much more infectious than the original strain of the virus," the report said. "Persons infected with the delta variant have 10,000 times more virus in their nasal cavity than was the case for the original strain. This is true even for people who are vaccinated. This literally means there is far more virus in the air around a person infected with delta than previous strains."
Low vaccination rates among 13- to 17-year-olds and the lack of an approved vaccine for children 12 and younger increase the risk to children.
"In the case of delta, the most susceptible individuals in Arkansas are those who are unvaccinated, the greatest numbers of whom are children and young adults," the report said. "According to the Mayo Clinic, only 8% of children 13 to 17 in...
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