Deaths May Double in India in Coming Weeks - India COVID Forecasters

Deaths May Double in India in Coming Weeks - COVID Forecasters

Delhi News Correspondent gives a report about the current situation of COVID-19 in India.



The second wave of coronavirus has plunged India into the biggest health crisis of the world, and there are higher probabilities that it may worsen in the coming weeks. Some research models have warned India that the death toll could double in the country from current levels.

A team of researchers at the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore conducted research using a mathematical model and predicted that around 404,000 deaths could occur in India by June 2021 if the current situation continues.

Research conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation located at the University of Washington has informed that the death toll may increase to 1,018,879 by the end of July. Even if people avoid the worst estimates, India could still suffer the biggest coronavirus death toll in the world. Currently, the US has the largest number of fatalities due to corona at 578,000.

On Wednesday, India recorded 3,780 deaths for a toll of around 226,188. Moreover, 382,315 new cases were recorded on the same day. In the current week, the scenes of hospitals sending away ambulances, long lines of people standing outside crematoriums have portrayed a picture of a country overwhelmed by this unprecedented corona crisis.

According to the dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, Ashish Jaha, “The next four to six weeks are going to be very, very difficult for India.” Ha also said, “The challenge is going to be to do things now that will make sure it is four weeks, not six or eights, and that we minimize how bad things will get. But in no way is India anywhere near out of the woods.”

On Monday, the ministry said that in around a dozen states, including Maharashtra, Delhi, and Chattisgarh, there are no early signs indicating that the number of new infections on a daily basis is plateauing.

Coronavirus has brought a prolonged crisis with the potential to reverse the recovery of India from the last year’s recessions. Moreover, it has the ability to dent the popularity of Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India.

The Reserve Bank of India has made an announcement regarding the new loan-relief measures for small businesses. Moreover, it has promised to inject around 500 billion rupees of liquidity with the intent to support the economy.

At the present time, the major health concern for public health researchers is the dearth of coronavirus testing, which scientists believe is a major cause of undercounting cases in the country.

One of the biggest concerns at the present time is the rising test positivity rate. It refers to the percentage of positive test results. Currently, the positivity rate is 20% in the country, and in some parts, it is around 40%, which is shockingly a high number.

Though it can be difficult to predict the coronavirus cases in sprawling countries like India, there is an urgent need for the country to step up essential public health measures like social distancing and testing to control the rising cases.

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